Lauren Novak

• Metro-wide Inventory is down 24.2 percent since the start of 2021
• Month’s Supply of Inventory (absorption rate) is at a record low, ~ 3 weeks of supply
• Median Sales Price rose 10.4 percent to $332,250

(February 15, 2022) – According to new data from Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and the Saint Paul Area Association of REALTORS®, inventory levels in the Twin Cities metropolitan area have reached a decades-long low of 4,221 homes at the end of January. At the current rate of demand, this inventory would last little more than three weeks without the addition of new listings. The market would require six months of supply in order to be considered balanced.

LISTINGS & SALES

Real estate in the Twin Cities saw a peak of buyer activity throughout 2021, but only now are we able to see the extent of that increased demand. Year over year comparisons of pending sales indicate a noticeable drop of 11.7 percent from last January, but a more historical perspective shows that the 3,170 purchase agreements signed last month are comparable to January of 2019 and 2018. Closed sales show a similar picture, 2022 is not starting off with the same fervor as 2021. The same goes for sellers, resulting in an 11.5 percent drop in supply since last January.

“The year began about as expected, with both sales and listings unable to match their year-ago levels,” said Denise Mazone, President of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “But don’t get the wrong idea, the market is expected to remain pretty hot this year as demand continues to outpace supply but also as buyers hope to get ahead of rising rates.”

INVENTORY

While the supply of new listings has historically been a concern for over a decade, the public could usually count on consistent year-over-year activity from sellers until 2020. A sharp fall in supply two summers ago followed by a rebound in 2021 led to variations in seller activity unseen since 2015. Last month sellers listed 3,605 properties on the market, our lowest level of seller activity since 2005.

“It’s important that market participants understand what less than 1.0 month of supply means,” according to Mark Mason, President of the Saint Paul Area Association of REALTORS®. “This means well-priced and attractive listings will sell quickly and often with multiple offers in play. Buyers should be patient but prepared to write strong, non-contingent offers while sellers should be ready to move quickly.”

HOME PRICES

The stark contrast between lackluster seller activity and the remaining rush of demand from buyers leaves the Twin Cities with a housing market where half of its listings last no longer than 21 days, down 4.5 percent from a year prior. This strong seller’s market has driven up the price of listings, now at $332,250 which is the highest January median sales price on record. These market dynamics, if left unchanged, show signs of high market prices and stiff competition for buyers as the weather warms.

LOCATION & PROPERTY TYPE

Market activity varies by area, price point and property type. The condominium market has seen a significant increase in the past year, yet January was the first significant drop in the number of condo sales, down 11.5 percent. New construction has hit a downward trend since last summer and this trend continues with a 6.8 percent decrease in sales. Between Minneapolis and St. Paul, the state capitol city fared better for the first month of the year, seeing a 2.3 percent increase in closed sales while Minneapolis experienced a 16.1 percent drop in sales. The suburban cities that showed the most sales growth in January were Savage (100 percent), Chanhassen (50.0 percent), and Stillwater (45.5 percent) while those that lost the most sales from last year were West Bloomington (- 43.9 percent), Lakeville (- 43.0 percent), and St. Louis Park (- 41.7 percent).

January 2022 by the numbers compared to a year ago

• • Sellers listed 3,605 properties on the market, an 11.5 percent decrease from last January
  • Buyers signed 3,170 purchase agreements, down 11.7 percent (3,020 closed sales, down 10.4 percent)
  • Inventory levels fell 24.2 percent to 4,221 units at month-end
  • Months Supply of Inventory was down 20.0 percent to 0.8 months (4-6 months is balanced)
  • The Median Sales Price rose 10.4 percent to $332,250
  • Days on Market fell 2.4 percent to 41 days, on average (median of 21 days, down 4.5 percent from January 2021)
  • Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment
    • Single family sales fell 11.0 percent; Condo sales declined 11.5 percent & townhouse sales were down 4.5 percent
    • Traditional sales decreased 9.3 percent; foreclosure sales tumbled 32.4 percent; short sales fell 69.2 percent
    • Previously owned sales were 9.9 percent lower; new construction sales were 6.8 percent lower

January 2022 housing charts

From The Skinny Blog.

Tight supply and record demand pushed prices higher, market times lower and sapped inventory

Minneapolis–Saint Paul, Minnesota (January 24, 2022) – In 2021, housing demand reached a 20-year high while the number of homes for sale hit a 20-year low, according to an annual report issued by Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and the St. Paul Area Association of REALTORS®. That dynamic has been driving virtually every other housing indicator. For sellers, the year brought record prices, blazing fast market times, offers over asking price and a thin market where their homes stood out.“While the year was undeniably strong, we did see sales activity slow and price gains moderate in the second half of the year,” said Mark Mason, President of the Saint Paul Area Association of REALTORS®. “Ten percent price growth or higher simply isn’t sustainable long term. But we do expect the landscape to remain competitive in 2022 after not knowing what to expect the last couple years.”

For buyers, motivation from historically low mortgage rates, a desire for more space for remote work and learning, and an economy recovering from the pandemic crashed right into the supply shortage. These factors have caused some buyer fatigue and raised affordability concerns. The supply-demand imbalance has created a competitive environment where multiple offers are commonplace.

“Some aspiring buyers grew frustrated with a market favoring sellers. I worked with several buyers who wrote upwards of five offers but we kept losing out, particularly in the more affordable segments,” said Denise Mazone, President of the Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “The [housing] shortage is so persistent. We need about five to six times our current inventory levels just to reach a balanced market. That said, these low mortgage rates have partly offset the effect of rising prices on monthly payments.”

While single family homes make up most of our market, sales of townhomes and condos rose ten times as fast. Labor constraints and supply chain disruptions meant builders listed fewer—and buyers closed on fewer—newly built homes than in 2020. Despite some concerns around forbearances, lender-mediated activity (foreclosures and short sales) declined significantly from already low levels to about half a percent of all sales. 30-year fixed rates started the year at 2.65 percent and ended at 3.1 percent, though they’ve already touched 3.45 percent in 2022 given rising inflation. That could dampen demand in 2022 and restrain price growth which, if combined with an increase in listings, may start to impact market balance. We’ve been in a seller’s market for 10 straight years; perhaps a shift in the power balance is just what disheartened buyers need.

2021 by the Numbers Compared to 2020

• Sellers listed 75,536 properties on the market, a 1.1 percent decrease from 2020
• Buyers closed on 66,319 properties, up 2.7 percent (65,937 pending sales, up 0.2 percent)
• The Median Sales Price rose 11.4 percent to $339,900
• Inventory levels fell 26.4 percent to 6,742 units on average over the last 12 months
• Months Supply of Inventory was down 33.3 percent to 1.2 months on average (5-6 months is balanced)
• Days on Market decreased 34.9 percent to 28 days, on average (median of 11, down 38.9 percent)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment
  • Single family sales were up 0.8 percent; condo sales grew 25.1 percent; townhome sales increased 2.6 percent
  • Traditional sales rose 3.5 percent; foreclosure sales were down 53.1 percent; short sales fell 51.7 percent
  • Previously owned sales increased 3.7 percent; new construction sales fell 6.2 percent
  • $1M+ luxury sales surged 50.6 percent to a record high

Charting the Market
Seller activity (new listings) was down slightly from 2020 and reached its lowest level since 2014 despite record sales. Some drivers include hesitance around showings during a pandemic, having no place to go, refinancing to a lower rate, weak new construction activity and Baby Boomers aging in place instead of listing their homes. Disheartened buyers have been thirsty for more inventory for years.

Housing demand has rocketed higher over the last two years. Buyers were motivated by a desire for more space to work and learn from home, historically low interest rates, more options due to remote work and maybe even a fear of missing out. The condo and luxury $1M+ sub-markets outperformed other market segments. Sales would’ve undoubtedly been higher if we had sufficient supply.

With supply at a 20-year low and demand at a 20-year high, it’s no surprise the median sales price rose to set a new record. Home prices have risen 126.6% from their low point in 2011 and 47.8% from their prior 2006 peak. Rising prices boost equity and theoretically should motivate some reluctant sellers. But it also gives rise to affordability challenges.

 

Inventory levels declined almost every year since 2007, bringing housing supply levels down 84.4% from their peak. On average, buyers had 6,800 options during the year and nearly 9,000 in September. This supply-side constraint has led to bidding wars and rising prices. The shortage has frustrated some buyers—particularly at the entry-level price points. More supply is vital to market health and to increase housing opportunities.

Multiple offers—often above asking price—has allowed sellers to yield 101.9% of their asking price. That varied by area, property type and price point. Sellers find that listings stand out in an undersupplied market. Proper pricing was still important for motivated sellers. But a historic high for this ratio of sold to list price reflects highly motivated buyers as well as the imbalance between supply and demand.

 

Homes are selling at the fastest pace on record. Between May and July, half the homes sold in under a week, but more like 11 days for the year. That’s down 90.5% from 2008. Here again the inventory shortage and historic demand meant buyers pounce on attractive listings right away. Homes didn’t linger on the market for long. Even so, more homes selling in record time and at record prices couldn’t entice more sellers onto the dance floor.

From The Skinny Blog.